arvy Strategies – Quarterly Report Q1 2026

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Dear arvy client,

We're writing this quarterly report at a time that feels unsettling for many. War in the Middle East, oil prices spiking, headlines escalating daily. Add a US president who moves markets by several percent in seconds via social media. And in the middle of it all: your money, invested.

We understand that this doesn't feel good. We feel the same way — our own money is in the same portfolio as yours. Not symbolically, but six figures. When your account is red, so is ours.

That's exactly why we write this quarterly report. Not to list numbers, but to honestly tell you: What happened, why, and what we're concretely doing about it. We address the geopolitical situation, put it in historical context, show you what we've changed in the portfolio — and most importantly: what it all means for you.

In the arvy Quarterly Report Q1 2026 you'll learn:

• Why quality stocks are going through the toughest phase since the dot-com era — and why that's exactly an opportunity
• What the geopolitical shock in March means for the portfolio — and what 100 years of evidence tells us
• Why we sold all software stocks and where we're redeploying the capital
• Why energy stocks are entering a long-term uptrend
• Why the founders are now investing lump sums during weakness

Before We Start: Why Market Timing Is a Fool's Game

In quarters like this — geopolitical shock, sell-off, fear — the temptation is huge to "step out for now" and "get back in later." It sounds rational. It's the opposite.

And here's the cruel irony: The best days almost always come right after the worst. If you panic-sell, you miss both.

That's why market timing is a fool's game. The biggest gains come precisely in the moments that feel the worst. Those who stay invested are rewarded. Those who try to wait for the perfect moment lose — not sometimes, but statistically almost always.

More on this in our guides: → Lessons from 100 years of stock market crashes · → Investing in turbulent times: Crises & wars

For the deep dive: arvy Equity Strategy Update Q1 2026 | Quality Stocks, Energy, Aerospace | Performance, Buys & Sells

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Q1 2026 at a Glance

What did your money do in the first quarter? Here are the numbers — honest and transparent, after all costs.

You have a savings plan? Here's your update:

Strategy	Q1	YTD 2026	1 year	3 years p.a.	5 years p.a.	10 years p.a.
Defensive	-4.4%	-4.4%	-4.6%	2.3%	-0.2%	3.4%
Balanced	-6.9%	-6.9%	-8.2%	3.1%	1.0%	4.5%
Growth	-10.1%	-10.1%	-13.0%	3.9%	2.5%	5.8%

You're saving in Pillar 3a? Here are your numbers:

Strategy	Q1	YTD 2026	1 year	3 years p.a.	5 years p.a.	10 years p.a.
Strolling	-3.7%	-3.7%	-3.6%	2.1%	-0.6%	3.1%
Walking	-5.0%	-5.0%	-5.4%	2.5%	0.1%	3.7%
Hiking	-6.4%	-6.4%	-7.7%	2.9%	1.1%	4.2%
Mountaineering	-8.2%	-8.2%	-10.2%	3.4%	1.7%	5.1%
Climbing	-10.1%	-10.1%	-13.0%	3.9%	2.5%	5.8%

You're invested in the arvy equity fund? Here's the result:

Strategy	Q1	YTD 2026	1 year	3 years p.a.	5 years p.a.
arvy Equity Strategy in $	-9.3%	-9.3%	-13.0%	7.1%	8.2%

Market Environment: 8 Months of Correction and a Geopolitical Shock

The past eight months have been one of the most challenging environments for concentrated quality stock strategies in the last two decades. The bulk of the loss came in March — driven by the geopolitical shock in the Middle East and a correction phase in equities.

Selected returns Q1 2026:

Index	Q1 2026	YTD 2026
MSCI AC World in CHF / hedged	-2.2% / -4.2%	-2.2% / -4.2%
Swiss Equities (SPI)	-2.1%	-2.1%
S&P 500 in $	-4.6%	-4.6%
Nasdaq in $	-6.0%	-6.0%
Bonds in CHF	-1.2%	-1.2%
Gold in $	8.1%	8.1%
Oil (Brent)	+79%	+79%
Energy (XLE)	+38%	+38%
Bitcoin	-22%	-22%

Source: Tradingview

Beneath the surface, the picture was far more dramatic than index returns suggest: Energy stocks surged in double digits, while tech, consumer discretionary and financials all suffered. The market rotated aggressively away from the Magnificent 7 — for the first time since 2022.

Geopolitical Shock: 48 Wars in 100 Years — What the Evidence Says

Quality Stocks: The Toughest Phase Since 1999

The relative underperformance of quality stocks versus the broader market has reached a level last seen in 1999 at the absolute peak of the dot-com mania. We're now in month 8 of a phase that historically lasts 3–9 months. Imagine you've had 8 months of rain — and statistically, the sun comes out after 9 months. We're close to the turning point.

But the evidence from 140 years of stock market history shows: Quality stock weakness phases are almost always temporary — they come and go with the market cycle, not because something is fundamentally broken. Companies that are well-run, earn high returns on capital, carry no debt, and grow — they always follow their business fundamentals in the long run. The market can ignore them for a while. But not permanently — 140 years of history proves it.

Quality stocks vs. the US market (S&P 500)

What Worked in the Portfolio — and What Didn't?

Here you can see which companies in your portfolio performed well this quarter and which didn't. Transparency matters to us — even when the news isn't always positive.

These companies contributed positively

These companies weighed on performance

Portfolio Changes: Software Out, Energy & Industrial Gases In

New Positions & Increases

Sales

Bonds: Stability in the Portfolio

Not every arvy client is 100% invested in equities. For the Defensive and Balanced strategies (savings plan) as well as Strolling, Walking, Hiking and Mountaineering (Pillar 3a), bonds play an important role as a stabilising element.

What are bonds? Simply put: You lend money to a company or government and receive regular interest payments in return. At the end of the term, you get your money back. Less return than equities, but also less volatility — exactly the right thing for the part of your portfolio that should provide stability.

This means: The bond portion of your portfolio currently earns 3.63% per year in interest — with high credit quality and low volatility. In uncertain times like these, it's a valuable anchor that stabilises the overall portfolio while equities deliver the long-term returns.

Why We're Increasing Our Own Investments Now

What Does This Mean for You?

Perhaps you're reading this and thinking: "Negative returns. That doesn't sound good." Understandable. But here's what it really means — depending on how you're invested with arvy:

Outlook: What Do We Expect for the Rest of 2026?

1. Midterm election year = volatility is part of the deal.

2026 is a US midterm election year — the year in the middle of a presidency when the House and Senate are re-elected. Historically, these are the most turbulent stock market years of all: Since 1946 there have been 20 such years, and nearly every one saw a correction averaging -18%.

Why? Because uncertainty is poison for stock markets. And in a midterm year there's plenty of it — political shifts, new legislation, power changes.

Volatility is not a flaw in the system — it's a normal part of the cycle. And for savings plan investors, it's actually an advantage: You automatically buy more shares when prices are low.

2. Other sectors are taking the lead.

Energy, commodities and transport companies are running strong. That's often an early sign that the economy is picking up speed — and that's good for the companies in your portfolio. Energy stocks are entering a multi-decade outperformance cycle — structural, not cyclical. This is the opposite of tech stocks.

3. AI hype: Why we remain cautious there.

Company Updates

Conclusion: Most Attractive Valuation in Years. We're Adding.

The coming months will remain volatile. Midterm year, geopolitics, oil prices, earnings season — the headlines won't stop.

But long-term wealth building doesn't come from perfect timing — it comes from discipline, patience and quality.

Phases like this — months of historic quality stock weakness, the most attractive portfolio valuation in years, a geopolitical sell-off — these are the moments that make the difference over the next 3, 5, 10 years.

We'll be glad in 10+ years that we added precisely now.

Best regards
Your arvy team, Florian, Patrik & Thierry