arvy Strategies – Quarterly Report Q2 2026
July 8, 2026
6 min read
TL;DR — The Key Takeaways in 30 Seconds
Markets rebounded strongly after the March shock — but the rally was carried almost entirely by AI and tech stocks. Our quality portfolio recovered, though less than the broader market. The bond portion buffered the swings exactly as designed. We added to healthcare and aerospace. Volatility is here to stay: overheated tech stocks, the midterms, and the seasonally bumpy summer months. Your job stays the same: Change nothing. Let your savings plan run.
Dear arvy client,
In April we wrote to you: "Those who panic-sell miss the best days — and the best days almost always come right after the worst." That's exactly what happened. After the de-escalation between the US and Iran, markets delivered one of their strongest quarters in years. Anyone who sold in March locked in the loss and missed the recovery.
At the same time, we'll be honest with you: your portfolio only partially participated in this recovery. Why that is, what we've concretely done about it — and why we remain convinced — takes three minutes to read. First, your numbers.
Our message: Stay invested. Stay patient. Let compounding work for you.
Q2 2026 at a Glance
What did your money do in the second quarter? Here are the numbers — honest and transparent, after all costs.
You have a savings plan? Here's your update:
| Strategy | Q2 | YTD 2026 | 1 year | 3 years p.a. | 5 years p.a. | 10 years p.a. |
| Defensive | 2.8% | -1.7% | -1.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 3.6% |
| Balanced | 3.1% | -4.0% | -4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 4.9% |
| Growth | 3.5% | -7.0% | -9.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 6.5% |
You're saving in Pillar 3a? Here are your numbers:
| Strategy | Q2 | YTD 2026 | 1 year | 3 years p.a. | 5 years p.a. | 10 years p.a. |
| Strolling | 2.7% | -1.1% | -0.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 3.2% |
| Walking | 2.9% | -2.2% | -2.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 3.9% |
| Hiking | 2.8% | -3.8% | -4.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 4.6% |
| Mountaineering | 3.3% | -5.2% | -6.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 5.6% |
| Climbing | 3.5% | -7.0% | -9.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 6.5% |
You're invested in the arvy equity fund? Here's the result:
| Strategy | Q2 | YTD 2026 | 1 year | 3 years p.a. | 5 years p.a. | Since inception p.a. |
| arvy Equity Strategy in $ | 4.6% | -5.1% | -13.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 8.5% |
A silver lining hidden in these numbers: Your savings plan automatically bought at low prices in March and April. Those units are now sitting in your portfolio at bargain prices — the cost-averaging effect worked for you, without you lifting a finger.
What Happened?
The second quarter was the mirror image of the first — with one catch.
Talks between the US and Iran led to de-escalation, oil prices came back down, and tension drained out of the markets. The broader market rallied strongly.
The catch: This rally was carried almost exclusively by the big tech and AI names — precisely the stocks we deliberately no longer hold. Valuations there are now as high as they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Speculative companies without profits are outperforming solid ones. For our quality portfolio, that means: the recovery reached us too — but in dampened form compared to the index.
That's frustrating — we'll admit it openly. We feel it in our own accounts: our money sits in the same portfolio as yours. But it changes nothing about the starting position.
The weakness of quality stocks versus the hype has now lasted unusually long — and historically, the longer it lasted, the bigger the catch-up move that followed. Good companies always get fairly valued again in the end. In 140 years of stock market history, there has been no exception. What we can't tell you: which month it turns. What we do know: euphoria has never been a good advisor at the stock market — and we don't want to be invested where the music is playing loudest, right before it stops.
What Did We Concretely Do?
💊 Added to Healthcare
The sector has several difficult years behind it — the Covid boom and the hangover that followed have now been fully digested. What remains are market leaders with high returns on capital, stable cash flows, and long-term tailwinds: the world is getting older, wealthier, and structurally spends more on health. We deliberately built out these positions — at valuations we haven't seen in years.
✈️ Expanded Aerospace
The tensions around the Strait of Hormuz put aerospace stocks under pressure in spring — for us a buying opportunity, not a threat. The crisis has resolved, and the long-term picture is intact: order books full for years to come, growing air traffic, and a lucrative maintenance and spare-parts business with recurring revenue.
Both follow the same principle: We buy quality when it's cheap — not when it's popular. That it pays off over years rather than in the next quarter is part of this approach.
Not Just Equities: Your Quality Buffer in the Portfolio
Many of you aren't 100% invested in equities — in the Defensive and Balanced strategies (savings plan) as well as Strolling through Mountaineering (Pillar 3a), a second building block works for you: bonds. And quarters like the last two show exactly what it's there for: when equity markets fell in March, the bond portion noticeably cushioned the decline. You can see it directly in the tables above — the higher the bond share of your strategy, the gentler the swings.
Our principle applies to bonds too: quality.
Top-rated government bonds and bonds from companies that have been reliably profitable for decades — Johnson & Johnson, Booking Holdings, TotalEnergies, Alphabet (Google), Siemens. No exotic constructs, no risky high-yield bonds.
Role in the Portfolio
Equities deliver the long-term returns.
Bonds deliver the calm.
Bonds deliver the calm.
Average Yield
3.63%
Yield to maturity
In the volatile months ahead, this is your anchor — the overall portfolio stays more stable while the equity portion generates the long-term returns.
What Does This Mean for You?
💰 You have a savings plan?
Let it run. The quarter showed why: your purchases from the weak months are, long-term, the most valuable units in your portfolio. → Why CHF 500/month makes you richer than CHF 50,000 at once
🏛️ You're in Pillar 3a?
Same principle — your horizon is decades, not quarters. By the way: the second half of the year is a good moment to plan your 3a contribution for the 2026 tax year, rather than rushing it in December.
📈 You made a lump-sum investment?
Your paper loss from Q1 has shrunk, even if it hasn't fully recovered yet. That takes time — every 15+ year period in the stock market has been positive historically.
🤔 Thinking about switching to the index or tech?
That's the most understandable question in this phase — and the most expensive mistake. Chasing the rally now means buying the most expensive stocks in the market at the most expensive moment, and selling quality at the bottom. Returns are made exactly the other way around. Stay invested.
Outlook: Volatility Is Here to Stay — for Three Reasons
Reason #1
Tech Is Overheated
Extreme concentration in a few AI names, valuations like 1999. Phases like this rarely end quietly. We're deliberately not invested where the music is playing loudest.
Reason #2
The Midterms Are Coming
The US votes in November. Midterm years are historically the most volatile — and since 1946, the corrections before them were the starting signal for a new bull market in every single case.
Reason #3
Seasonally Weak Summer
August through October are historically the bumpiest months of the stock market year. An advantage for savings plan investors: you automatically buy in cheaper.
In short: expect swings — they're not a flaw in the system, but a normal part of the cycle. In the short term, our restraint on tech costs us relative performance. In the long term, it protects your capital.
Company Updates
👶 The arvy Children's Account Is Live NEW
Invest for your child, grandchild or godchild — from CHF 1 per month, no minimum, pause anytime. The account stays in your name: no automatic handover at 18. CHF 100/month grows to around CHF 43,000 by the 18th birthday. First 6 months: 0% management fee. → Everything about the Children's Account
🇩🇪 Germany Expansion
arvy is tradable on all Sparkassen and Volksbanken platforms and directly available via Comdirect. We plan to be more active and present in Germany going forward.
📬 arvy Weekly — Read, Watch or Listen
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💬 Your Feedback Matters
We continuously implement your feedback — so tell us freely what's on your mind. Via the chat function in the app, the form on the website, or by email to hello@arvy.ch. Every message is read.
Conclusion: Discipline Paid Off. Patience Pays Off Next.
Q2 showed two things. First: staying invested pays off — the recovery came faster than anyone could have imagined in March. Second: our style is currently out of fashion — and exactly these phases have historically laid the groundwork for the best years that followed.
We stay disciplined, buy quality at attractive prices, and don't let the euphoria infect us. Long-term wealth building doesn't come from perfect timing — it comes from discipline, patience and quality.
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Keep your savings plan running
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No euphoria buys, no panic sells
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Patience over timing
Stay invested. Stay patient. And let compounding work for you.
Best regards
Your arvy team, Florian, Patrik & Thierry
For the Die-Hards: The Complete Strategy Update
Want to go deeper? In the arvy Equity Strategy Update Q2 2026 we go through every position, every buy and every sell — healthcare, aerospace, performance in detail, and our take on the AI hype.
