arvy Strategies – Quarterly Report Q4 2025
January 7, 2026
5 min read
arvy's teaser: Global equity markets extended their upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2025. Performance was driven primarily by persistent AI enthusiasm and a very narrow group of technology giants. While these stocks dominated headlines, high-quality companies increasingly fell out of favour with investors. This is precisely where today’s exceptional opportunity lies. Quality equities – profitable, financially sound companies with structural growth – are trading at some of the most attractive valuations seen in many years. Historically, such phases have often marked excellent entry points for long-term investors.
Dear arvy client,
In the new arvy Q4 2025 Quarterly Report, you will learn:
- Why quality stocks are currently out of favour – and why this represents an opportunity
- How markets are positioning for 2026, a historically volatile U.S. midterm election year
- Which portfolio holdings performed well and which disappointed
- What adjustments and new investments we made
Our message remains clear: Stay invested. Stay long-term. Let compounding work for you.
Read or watch the full Q4 2025 Report
arvy Aktien-Strategie-Update Q4 2025 | Qualitäts-/Software Aktien | Performance, Käufe & Verkäufe
The arvy strategies have delivered the following net returns in CHF this year and over previous periods.
arvy Savings Plan (net):
| Strategie | Q4 | YTD 2025 | 1 year | 3 years p.a. | 5 years p.a. | 10 years p.a. |
| Defensive | -2.9% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 3.9% |
| Balanced | -4.7% | -1.4% | -1.4% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 5.3% |
| Growth | -7.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 7.0% |
arvy Pillar 3a (net)
| Strategie | Q4 | YTD 2025 | 1 year | 3 years p.a. | 5 years p.a. | 10 years p.a. |
| Flanieren | -2.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 0.2% | 3.5% |
| Spazieren | -3.3% | -0.5% | -0.5% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 4.2% |
| Wandern | -4.4% | -1.4% | -1.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 4.9% |
| Bergsteigen | -5.8% | -2.1% | -2.1% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 6.0% |
| Klettern | -7.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 7.0% |
arvy Equity Strategy (net):
| Strategie | Q4 | YTD 2025 | 1 year | 3 years p.a. | 5 years p.a. |
| arvy Equity Strategy in $ | -6.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 12.3% | 5.8% |
In this report, we analyse the current market environment, preparations for 2026, portfolio winners and laggards, recent adjustments, and our outlook for the coming quarters.
Market Environment: Quality Out of Favour – Opportunity for Long-Term Investors
The fourth quarter was characterised by sideways markets, sustained AI enthusiasm, and widening valuation gaps between hype-driven stocks and quality companies. While select mega-caps reached new highs, conditions for quality equities were among the most challenging since the dot-com era.
Selected returns of different asset classes:
| Index | Q3 | YTD 2025 |
| MSCI AC World in CHF | 3.0% | 5.9% |
| Swiss Equities (SPI) | 9.0% | 17.8% |
| S&P 500 | 2.2% | 16.4% |
| Bonds in CHF | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Gold | 12.0% | 64.6% |
| Bitcoin | -6.5% | -24.0% |
| Cash | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Source: Tradingview
Historically, the relative underperformance of quality stocks versus the broader market has reached levels last seen in 1999. In hindsight, such phases regularly proved to be excellent entry points for patient investors.
While capital currently flows into speculative, often unprofitable technology companies, we remain true to our philosophy: we invest not in trends, but in resilient business models.
Chart 1: Quality stocks vs S&P 500, relative
Source: Jeff Weniger, Refinitiv
Quality Is Returning to Focus
Improving market breadth is also evident in our preferred healthcare sector, which delivered the strongest sector performance during the reporting period. This was supported by meaningful capital inflows and the completion of the multi-year Covid boom-and-bust cycle.
In our view, this marks a clear signal: high-quality companies with solid fundamentals are moving back into focus. Comparable phases – following the dot-com bubble in 1999 or the post-2008 quality rotation – were rare and historically offered attractive contrarian opportunities.
A strong vote of confidence: all three arvy founders – Patrick, Florian, and Thierry – invested six-figure amounts into the arvy equity strategy during the year, in addition to their regular savings plans.
Why?
Because the companies we own together are fundamentally as attractive as they have been in many years.
Chart 2: arvy Portfolio: Fundamental data
Source: arvy, Fiscal AI
Why We Stay Committed to Quality
Our investment objective is clearly defined: to invest in companies capable of delivering 12–15% annual returns (in USD) over the long term.
We achieve this by selecting companies that:
- generate sustainable revenue and earnings growth of 7–20%,
- earn high returns on capital,
- and possess stable cash flows and strong competitive positions.
Why this range?
- Below 7%, lasting market outperformance is unlikely.
- Above 20%, growth is typically unsustainable and subject to strong mean reversion.
Today, we are witnessing a rare market anomaly: quality stocks are out of fashion – and that is exactly what makes them attractive.
Portfolio Winners and Laggards in 2025
Top performers
- Medpace – Benefiting from a recovery in biotech funding
- Broadcom – Structural AI winner with a diversified customer base
- Safran – High visibility from long-term aircraft maintenance contracts
- Eli Lilly – Market leader in diabetes and obesity with a strong pipeline
Bottom performers
- Constellation Software & Wolters Kluwer – Software pressure amid AI uncertainty
- Ferrari – Intentionally conservative growth to preserve exclusivity
- Novo Nordisk – Weaker pipeline relative to Eli Lilly
Chart 3: arvy Portfolio — Top and bottom performers
Source: arvy
Outlook 2026: Midterm Year and Volatility
2026 is a U.S. midterm election year – historically one of the most volatile phases in the presidential cycle. Since World War II, 18 of 20 midterm years experienced at least one significant market correction.
The reason is simple: uncertainty is kryptonite for equity markets.
The good news: in 19 out of 20 cases, these corrections laid the foundation for a new bull market during or shortly after the election year.
Our conclusion remains unchanged:
- continue savings plans consistently
- invest with discipline
- treat volatility as opportunity, not risk
Chart 4: Average S&P 500 Returns in Midterm Years (1946–2021)
Source: arvy
Portfolio adjustments and new investments
Our focus remains unchanged: quality, capital discipline and sustainable earnings power.
Equities
New positions
- Hilton & Marriott – Asset-light franchise models with strong visibility and long-term growth from global travel
- Airbus & Heico – Beneficiaries of structural air traffic growth and the maintenance & spare parts market
Reductions and sales
We largely exited software positions. The narrative that “AI eats software” currently creates excessive uncertainty and ties up capital that can be more productively deployed into attractively valued quality companies.
We are currently increasing exposure to healthcare market leaders with high returns on capital and stable cash flows.
Bonds
In the bond book we remain balanced: 36% of the portfolio is invested in attractively yielding government bonds with high credit quality — including the USA, Germany, New Zealand and Spain. A further 50% is invested in corporate bonds from top issuers such as Johnson & Johnson, Booking Holdings and Siemens.
The average yield to maturity of our bond allocation currently stands at 3.63%.
This keeps the fixed-income portion a stabilising element in the portfolio for the Defensive and Balanced savings plan strategies as well as the Strolling, Walking, Hiking and Mountaineering strategies in Pillar 3a — offering attractive running yields and high credit quality.
Conclusion: Discipline Beats Timing
The months ahead will again be dominated by headlines: inflation, central banks, geopolitics, AI, and the midterm elections. Short-term volatility is inevitable.
But long-term wealth is not built through perfect timing – it is built through discipline, patience, and quality.
“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than in the corrections themselves.”
— Peter Lynch
Stay invested. Stay long term. And let compounding work for you.
Best regards,
Your arvy team
