The IPO Class of 2026

"It is almost a mathematical impossibility to imagine that, out of the thousands of things for sale on a given day, the most attractively priced is the one being sold by a knowledgeable seller (company insiders) to a less-knowledgeable buyer (investors)."

– Warren Buffett

$2 trillion.

That's the valuation SpaceX is now pitching to investors. Two trillion.

The timing is not a coincidence. SpaceX filed as the first out of the big private companies that want to get listed. Elon Musk (who owns 42% of SpaceX – yes do the math 😉 + here our Book Club: The Book of Elon: A Guide to Purpose and Success) wants to list before the AI IPO wave absorbs all available institutional capital. He specifically wants to beat OpenAI and Anthropic to market. This is a race for capital, not just a listing.

If the IPO goes through at $2 trillion, SpaceX would instantly rank among the six most valuable publicly traded companies on Earth (chart 1).

Above Tesla. Above Berkshire Hathaway.

On Day One.

But SpaceX isn't alone. Behind it stands a queue of companies whose combined private market value now exceeds $4 trillion.

Here's the number that should stop you cold: the entire US IPO market raised $469 billion over the past decade. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic alone would need roughly $450 billion from public markets. In one quarter.

However, they'll most likely float 3–8% max. Tiny supply. Massive demand. First-day pops will be spectacular. The question is what happens after.

Here's who they are, what they do, and what the numbers actually say.

Welcome to the IPO Class of 2026.

Chart 1: Largest companies globally by market cap in $ (SpaceX increased from 1.75t to 2t reported IPO target)

Who's Who — An Overview of IPOs in 2026

These are products you use every day, hiding behind corporate names most people can't identify.

Here's the cheat sheet (chart 2):

• SpaceX (targeting $2 trillion+). You know the rockets. You maybe even use Starlink. On April 1st, SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC. The core business generates $15–16 billion in revenue with $8 billion EBITDA. Starlink has 10 million subscribers growing 50%+ yearly. But SpaceX merged with xAI in February — and xAI generated $210 million in revenue over nine months while burning $9.5 billion. SpaceX doesn't need public capital. The IPO is an exit ramp for xAI investors. At $2 trillion on $16 billion revenue, that's 125x sales. Saudi Aramco — the previous record IPO — traded at 6x.
• OpenAI ($852 billion). You use ChatGPT. The company just closed the largest private round in history — $122 billion. OpenAI is now worth more than every S&P 500 company except 12. Zero profits. Those 12 have a combined age of nearly 1'000 years. OpenAI is 10. The circular financing is remarkable: Amazon put in $50 billion — then signed a $100 billion AWS deal. Nvidia put in $30 billion — OpenAI runs on Nvidia GPUs. SoftBank put in $30 billion — they're co-building Stargate. Your largest investors are your largest customers. Projected losses: $14 billion this year. $150 million per day.
• ByteDance ($480–500 billion). You know TikTok. The parent company is ByteDance — a Chinese social media empire with over $120 billion in revenue, powering the most addictive algorithm on the planet. A 2026 listing is being considered, but the geopolitical complications — US ban threats, Chinese regulatory oversight, data sovereignty concerns — make this the wildcard of the entire class.
• Anthropic ($380 billion). Makes Claude — the AI competing with ChatGPT. Revenue growing 10x per year, surpassing $30 billion annualized now. The fascinating detail: Anthropic raised at $350 billion and targets an IPO at the same price. Zero markup. OpenAI targets a 2–3x jump. When you IPO at the same price you just raised, you're buying trust infrastructure — audited financials, SEC oversight — not extracting value.
• Databricks ($134 billion). The infrastructure that lets companies use AI on their own data. $4.8 billion revenue, 55% growth, 80% gross margins, positive free cash flow. The only profitable company in the AI IPO class. The pickaxe-seller in the gold rush.
• Stripe ($159 billion). Every online payment probably flows through Stripe. Already profitable. Already at scale. The cleanest business on this list.
• Revolut ($75 billion). The European neobank with 65 million customers across 100+ countries. $4 billion revenue, $1.4 billion pre-tax profit. Targeting $9 billion revenue by end of 2026.
• Canva ($42–56 billion). You use it for presentations and design. 260 million monthly users. $3.5 billion revenue. Profitable for 8 consecutive years.

In comparison to Switzerland?

Canva, the smallest of the most anticipated IPOs would be the 8^th biggest company in Switzerland just before SwissRe and after Richemont.

So you see, the biggest wave of IPOs in stock market history is about to hit. But before you rush in, remember the past IPO season.

The IPO Class of 2021 taught us a brutal lesson.

Chart 2: Top IPOs Anticipated in 2026 — Valuations and Expected Timing

It's Probably Overpriced — What the Class of 2021 Taught Us

2020 and 2021 saw the last great IPO wave. Coinbase. Robinhood. Rivian. DoorDash. Snowflake. Oatly. Companies everybody knew. Everybody used. Everybody wanted to own.

Coinbase: minus 92%. Rivian: minus 95%. Oatly: minus 97%. Robinhood: minus 92%. Bumble: minus 97%. DoorDash: minus 83%.

From Day One, high to lowest price (chart 3).

IPOs cluster during euphoria — when investors pay sky-high valuations and take maximum risk. Founders and early VCs cash out. Retail investors, who get access last, buy the narrative at the peak. That's why IPO has a second name on Wall Street: "It's Probably Overpriced."

Or as Warren Buffet beautifully put: It is almost a mathematical impossibility to imagine that, out of the thousands of things for sale on a given day, the most attractively priced is the one being sold by a knowledgeable seller (company insiders) to a less-knowledgeable buyer (investors)."

This isn't cynicism. It's the business model.

The goal is to price as high as possible. As we wrote in our analysis of On Holding — The Swiss Nike: you're not the customer.

You're the exit.

And extraordinary businesses at extraordinary valuations don't always make extraordinary investments.

This begs the question, if IPOs are designed to extract value, …

… why care at all?

Chart 3: The IPO Class of 2020/21 have had a tough time since going public

The arvy Playbook — Three Rules for the IPO Class of 2026

Because 80% of the most successful stocks in any decade went public within the previous 10 years. Amazon IPO'd at $438 million. Google at $23 billion. Facebook at $104 billion.

All "overpriced." All became trillion-dollar companies.

The opportunity is real. But the timing matters enormously (see Rule 1).

Here are the three rules we follow at arvy — and that every investor should consider before buying into the Class of 2026:

• Rule 1: Never buy an IPO on Day One: At arvy, we never buy into IPOs from the beginning. We wait. We let the hype fade, the lock-up expirations pass, and the price find its real level. The best IPO investments are almost never made on Day One. They're made weeks if not months later — after the stock finds its true price. Studies clearly show that most initial public offerings fall significantly short of expectations in the first one to three years (chart 4). But maybe that's where the opportunity lies. How to spot? See Rule 2.
• Rule 2: Wait for the "Good Chart" to form. We need enough price data to assess trend strength, support levels, and volatility patterns. That takes weeks or even months — minimum. No chart, no conviction. If the stock drops 40% in year one (as most IPOs do), that's not failure. That's when the real opportunity begins.
• Rule 3: Ask — would I buy this at this price if it were already public? SpaceX at 125x revenue. OpenAI at infinite P/E. Anthropic at 20x revenue with negative margins. If these were already listed stocks with these metrics, would you buy them today? For most investors, the honest answer is no. That clarity should guide your timing.

The most disruptive wealth creation event in human history is happening right now — entirely in private markets. SpaceX will likely be a generational company. Anthropic's enterprise strategy is brilliant. Databricks has the cleanest balance sheet in the class. Stripe, Revolut, and Canva are already profitable.

But generational companies at generational valuations don't always make generational investments.

The best time to buy the IPO Class of 2026 might be 2027.

So, keep your eyes open.

Chart 4: Most IPO returns turn negative in the long run