The market at an all-time high – invest or wait?
December 16, 2025
7 min read
The Market Is at an All-Time High — Invest or Wait?
All-time highs feel dangerous. The data says otherwise. The S&P 500 has hit an all-time high on over 1,250 trading days — that's 8% of all trading days since 1950. Everyone who waited lost returns.
"The best time to invest was 20 years ago. The second-best time is today." — Chinese proverb, popularised by Warren Buffett
You have money in a savings account. You know you should invest. Then you see the headline: "S&P 500 hits new all-time high." And you think: Invest now? It can only go down. So you wait. A month. Three months. A year. And the market keeps rising — because all-time highs aren't the end, they're the normal state of a growing market.
This article dismantles the biggest investing myth: that you shouldn't invest at an all-time high. With data. With Swiss numbers. And with the structure that solves the problem not through courage, but through automation.
1,250+
Days at an all-time high — S&P 500 since 1950 (8% of all trading days)
CHF 281,000
Cost of 5 years of waiting — at CHF 500/month and 6% return
14.4%
Avg. 1-year return after an all-time high (S&P 500 since 1988)
Contents
01All-time highs are the normal state — not the exception
Here's the number that surprises most people: The S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high on over 1,250 occasions since 1950. That's roughly 8% of all trading days. In a typical decade, there are over 150 new all-time highs. In the 2010–2020 decade, there were over 200.
This means: if you say "I'll wait until the market isn't at an all-time high," you're waiting for a day when the market has fallen — and that day feels even scarier than the all-time high. There is no moment that feels "right." That's why timing doesn't work.
Why all-time highs are natural
A stock market reflects the value of the economy. As long as companies grow revenue, reinvest profits, and deliver innovation, the market rises long-term. New all-time highs aren't anomalies — they're the logical consequence of economic growth. A market that never reaches a new high is a market without growth. That's exactly the one you don't want.
02The data: What actually happens after all-time highs
Fear says: "After an all-time high comes a crash." The data says otherwise.
J.P. Morgan analysed the S&P 500 since 1988 and compared returns after all-time highs with returns after random days:
| Period after investment | Return after all-time high | Return after random day |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +14.4% | +11.7% |
| 3 years (annualised) | +10.3% | +9.6% |
| 5 years (annualised) | +9.6% | +9.0% |
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Guide to the Markets. S&P 500, 1988–2024.
Investments at all-time highs perform better on average than investments on random days. Not worse. Better. Over 1, 3, and 5 years.
The JP Morgan "Best Days" statistic
Anyone who missed the 10 best days of the S&P 500 between 2004 and 2023 halved their total return. 6 of those 10 days fell within 2 weeks of the 10 worst days. Those who sell because "the market is too high" very likely miss the recovery days that deliver the entire long-term return.
03What you lose by waiting
The cost of waiting isn't linear — it's exponential. Compound interest works both ways: it rewards early investing, and it punishes late investing. Disproportionately.
| Scenario | Contributed | End capital at 65 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start at 25, CHF 500/month, 6% | CHF 240,000 | CHF 995,000 | — |
| Start at 30 (waited 5 years) | CHF 210,000 | CHF 714,000 | −CHF 281,000 |
| Start at 35 (waited 10 years) | CHF 180,000 | CHF 502,000 | −CHF 493,000 |
Five years of waiting costs CHF 281,000 — on just CHF 30,000 of additional contributions. Ten years: nearly half a million. Not because the market crashed in between. But because compound interest on the missing early years never happened.
The complete mathematics: The True Cost of Waiting. And to calculate yourself: Compound Interest Calculator.
04"But the market is too expensive" — Valuation vs. price
An all-time high in price doesn't automatically mean an all-time high in valuation. Valuation = price relative to earnings (P/E, CAPE). Price alone says nothing.
The crucial distinction
Price all-time high + rising earnings = healthy. Earnings are keeping pace, the market isn't overvalued. → Investing makes sense.
Price all-time high + stagnating earnings + high valuation = caution warranted. Price has outrun earnings. → Savings plan mode: keep investing monthly, but don't panic-buy extra.
And even in the cautious scenario: research shows that savings plan investors are almost always better off after 10+ years than those who waited. Because you won't hit the bottom. Because you'll miss the recovery. Because your money sits in a savings account where inflation slowly erodes it.
Why emotions are the biggest risk and how to structurally eliminate them: Master Your Emotions When Investing.
05The savings plan as a structural answer to all-time-high anxiety
The solution that requires no timing, no forecasts, and no gut feeling: the automatic savings plan (Dollar Cost Averaging).
You invest the same amount every month — CHF 100, CHF 500, CHF 1,500, whatever fits. Automatically, by standing order, without decision.
At high prices: You buy fewer shares for the same amount. At low prices: You buy more shares. You actually benefit from setbacks because you "buy cheaper" — automatically, without emotional decision.
Why savings plans are psychologically superior
The problem isn't that investors don't understand the maths. The problem is that when the market is at an all-time high, they feel fear — and fear beats logic. The savings plan bypasses fear because it requires no decision. It runs. Every month. Regardless of headlines. Automation beats discipline.
Why CHF 500/month is more powerful than a CHF 50,000 lump sum: How to Invest CHF 500 per Month — 4 Scenarios.
06How arvy handles this: Quality Compounders in every regime
At arvy, our position on all-time highs is clear: we invest through them. Not because we ignore the market — but because our strategy is built on quality, not timing.
The arvy Equity Fund holds ~30 global quality companies — firms with strong balance sheets, growing cash flows, high returns on capital, and disciplined capital allocation. These companies perform in every market regime. And we structurally practise what this entire article recommends: automatic savings plans from CHF 1/month, accumulating share classes, and no active timing.
Thierry, Patrick, and Florian (all CFA Charterholders) each invest over CHF 100,000 in the same portfolio. When the market is at an all-time high, we invest our own money just the same as yours.
07Frequently asked questions
Should I invest at an all-time high?
Yes — data shows that investments at all-time highs historically deliver better returns than at random days. Average 1-year return after an all-time high: 14.4% vs. 11.7% on random days. A savings plan eliminates the timing problem entirely.
How often is the S&P 500 at an all-time high?
Over 1,250 times since 1950 — roughly 8% of all trading days. In a typical decade, there are 150+ new all-time highs. They're the normal state of a growing market.
Which is better: lump sum or savings plan?
Statistically, a lump sum wins in about two-thirds of cases. But psychologically, the savings plan is better for most people — it eliminates the fear of picking the wrong moment.
How much does one year of waiting cost me?
At CHF 500/month and 6% return: five years of waiting costs roughly CHF 281,000 in end capital. Compound interest punishes waiting exponentially.
What if the market crashes right after I invest?
It happens — but it's rarer than feared. And even when it does: those who stay invested historically recover within 3–5 years and then profit. Those who sell lock in the loss. A savings plan softens the impact by automatically buying cheaper after a crash.
Is "time in the market" really better than "timing the market"?
Yes. The J.P. Morgan "Best Days" statistic shows: anyone who missed the 10 best days of a decade halved their return. These best days almost always fall right after the worst days — when timing investors have already sold.
What does arvy do differently at all-time highs?
We invest through them — automatic savings plans, quality strategy with ~30 companies, no timing. The founders invest their own money in the same portfolio — including at all-time highs.
Further reading & related articles
The True Cost of Waiting
CHF 281,000 for 5 years of waiting
Investing in Turbulent Times
What 100 years of crises teach
Master Your Emotions
Why automation beats discipline
CHF 500/Month Investing
4 scenarios with real Swiss numbers
The True Cost of Investing
Fees, emotions and the 3 layers
20 Questions About Investing
The most common questions — honestly answered
The best time was yesterday. The second-best is today.
The all-time high that makes you nervous today will be a footnote in 10 years — a point on a chart that's long since moved higher. The question isn't "Is the market too high?" but "Am I invested when it's even higher in 10 years?" A savings plan answers that question with yes — every month, automatically, without you having to think about it.
Written by Thierry Borgeat, Co-Founder of arvy, and reviewed by Patrick Rissi, CFA and Florian Jauch, CFA. S&P 500 all-time high statistics based on J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets (2024) and S&P Dow Jones Indices Historical Data. "Best Days" statistic from JP Morgan Asset Management, 2004–2023. Waiting cost calculations: FV = PMT × [((1+r)^n − 1)/r], 6% p.a., monthly compounding. Last updated April 2026.
Disclaimer: This article is for general educational purposes and does not constitute personal investment advice. Historical returns are not a guarantee of future results. Stock markets can fall in the short term. arvy is a FINMA-supervised asset manager with a CISA licence (Art. 24). Imprint & Legal Information.
