Table of Contents
Afraid of investing?
Imagine you are so unlucky that you start investing at the beginning of a historic bear market – like one of the four worst bear markets of the last 100 years.
Is this the end?
No.
Chart 1: Recoveries in the US equity market after the crash

Source: UBS Global Investment Returns Book
But what if you invest at the beginning of a historic bear market? Even if you start right then, you will be successful in the long run. It’s not about timing the market right, it’s about getting started in the first place.
I will show you how and why.
The market and timing
A well-known saying in investing is: “Timing is everything.” But timing the market for long-term investing is a fool’s game. No one can reliably predict when the next crash will come or when the market will rise again. Therefore, the best approach is to stick to a dollar-cost averaging plan (savings plan). This means investing a fixed amount on a regular basis, regardless of what the market is currently doing. This way you benefit from average market gains and reduce the risk of investing all your money at the wrong time.
The time frame is crucial
The earlier you start investing, the more you will benefit in the long term. This is due to the power of compound interest, which Albert Einstein called the eighth wonder of the world. A simple example: If you start investing in your 30s and invest in the S&P 500, it doesn’t matter if the index is at 4300 or 3400 points. Over a 30-year period, these fluctuations are insignificant. The S&P 500 has achieved an average return of around 10% per year over the last 100 years.
In the two charts below you can see very clearly that the probability of having made a positive investment after just 10 years is very high. Only in rare cases is one negative, namely in four very difficult periods (mentioned in chart 1) over a period of 150 years.
However, this would only be the case if you had simply invested once and then never again. With dollar-cost averaging (savings plan), however, things look quite different again. The probability that you will do well increases enormously. Even though you were unlucky at the beginning.
Chart 2: The S&P 500, inflation-adjusted return and 10-year annualized return

Source: Advisor Perspectives
Chart 3: Total market return by year invested

Source: Robert Shiller
Two examples
To illustrate this, let’s look at two scenarios. In both cases:
- Initial investment of CHF 10,000.
- Monthly deposit of CHF 250.
- Time horizon of 30 years.
- Annual return of 10%.
Example A: Immediate market rise
In this scenario, the market rises after your investment. After 30 years you would have saved a considerable amount.

Source: arvy, Investment-Calculator
Example B: 30% market decline after the initial investment
Imagine you invest and the market falls by 30% shortly afterwards, as happened in 2020 during the pandemic. Your initial investment of CHF 10,000 falls to CHF 7,000. Nevertheless, you remain true to your strategy and continue to invest CHF 250 per month.

Source: arvy, Investment-Calculator
Despite this unfortunate start, the difference in the final amount is only about 50,000 CHF compared to example A – only 8% difference, even though you experienced a 30% loss in the beginning.
Consistency is the key
These examples show that the exact time of entry is less important than consistency. It’s about investing continuously and taking advantage of the market over a long period of time. If you manage to save a larger sum, you could even invest more during market downturns like the four big market declines:
- Increase the frequency and amount of your regular investments, e.g. from CHF 250 to CHF 500.
- Invest a larger amount at once when the market has fallen by 30% or more.
Long-term strategy
To harness the power of long-term investing, these three basic rules are crucial:
- Start early: The earlier you start, the more time your money has to grow.
- Reinvest earnings: Make your profits work for you.
- Diversify broadly: Spread your investments to minimize risk.
arvy’s takeaway
Good investors are not characterized by investing huge sums of money or picking secret stocks. They develop an investment strategy that suits them and stick to it, no matter what the market does. Consistency and sticking to your plan are paramount. Start now, invest regularly and let time work for you. Even if setbacks come, the market will recover in the long run and you will benefit from the greatest wealth creation machine of all time – the financial market. With arvy you are not alone on the journey, we take you with us.
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