What if the companies you trust most – tech giants, financial titans, iconic brands – aren’t as safe as they seem? In an AI-driven world of accelerating disruption, only one thing matters: how deep is your moat?
The Kodak Moment.
A phrase once synonymous with cherished memories now serves as a stark warning: adapt swiftly – or risk being swept away by innovation.
Today, as the term AI floods headlines and boardrooms alike, another critical theme emerges with equal urgency – disruption. It is central, constant, and compounding. And in this new landscape, we need to change the lens through which we evaluate businesses. The focus must shift – from chasing growth to assessing durability.
The key question is no longer how fast can this company grow? But how well can it defend itself? A true moat isn’t a metaphor. Picture a fortress surrounded by a deep and wide trench filled with crocodiles and sharks: This is what it takes to protect a business’s core advantage today. The real edge lies in how resilient the business model – and its leadership – are when faced with relentless competition.
Investors are beginning to pivot. The obsession with future growth is giving way to a deeper appreciation for strategic defensibility – the kind that can endure shocks, shifts, and paradigm changes. Because even the most promising growth story can unravel in an instant when AI accelerates the forces of disruption.
We’ve already seen what this looks like. Chegg, once a $13 billion education tech darling, seemed unstoppable. But within months of ChatGPT’s debut, its business model collapsed (Chart 1).
History offers a chilling parallel. Kodak, once a titan of photography, failed to capitalize on the digital wave it helped pioneer. The result? A dramatic and irreversible decline.
These are not isolated incidents. They’re signals. Clear, flashing red lights for anyone not stress-testing their portfolios for disruption risk.
Because the next Kodak moment could be happening right now.
And it’s coming for us all.
Chart 1: Chegg’s collapse after the launch of ChatGPT
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